January is starting off pretty frigid overall, but not for everyone. When taking a broad look at Greater Phoenix, the gap between supply and demand can seem insurmountable. However, specific target price ranges and areas are lighting up the map with heated activity.
For example, the West Valley lights up in the first-time homebuyer price ranges between $250K-$400K, specifically Surprise, Waddell, Avondale, Tolleson, and Southwest Phoenix as high builder incentives combat affordability issues. Also lighting up with frenzy activity in this range is Mesa (85204), North Gilbert, and Chandler (85226).
The Southeast Valley heats up in the $400K-$500K range, as does Tolleson and North Glendale.
Luxury condo sales over $1.5M are insanely popular in Scottsdale 85251, 85255 and Paradise Valley. However, the condo market in general is under the most stress with many areas seeing zero contract activity and a 67% increase in competing supply under $400K. Condos between $300K-$500K and $600K-$800K rose in value from January-April last year, but those gains disappeared from April-December*. They are now starting 2025 dead even with January 2024 at 0% appreciation.
Homeowners insurance is going to be a major topic this year, especially for the condo market as many HOAs can no longer shoulder the extra costs without raising dues. More landlords facing increased insurance costs, HOA fees, and lower rents on apartment-style condos are experiencing lower returns and looking for an exit strategy.
As the housing market enters its high season, things will look up for sellers from now through May. How much contract activity lights up depends mostly on mortgage rates, however. Until then, sellers must continue to offer high incentives to buy down rates, keep their properties in top condition to compete, and resist the urge to press the market on price.
*using a 3-month moving average, sales price per square foot
Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report
©2024 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC
